Don’t get me wrong, I think the Apple iPhone has the potential to be big. Really big. Revolutionary in some ways, even. I want one. However, I have a slight problem with a number of stories released this week stating that “High school teens say they’ll plunk down $500 for iPhone”.
The stories are getting their data from a PiperJaffray survey of 500 students. 84% of the students surveyed had heard of the iPhone. Of those 420 students, 24% said they “would buy a cellphone/iPod combo (iPhone) for $500.” 101 students. I’m no expert at interpreting statistics or spinning them into news releases, but what do these 101 yeses really mean? As usual, survey readers don’t know the socioeconomic status of those questioned. And of course no one knows if anyone of these students will actually buy the iPhone.
Apple analysts seem happy enough anyways:
Still, Munster said he’s modeling for the Cupertino-based electronics maker to sell just 660,000 iPhones during the 2007 fiscal year ending September and just another 4 million in the proceeding 12 months.
“We expect increasingly widespread adoption of the iPhone in more price-sensitive markets after the price gradually comes down,” he wrote. “Even if 20 percent of those students (or 5 percent overall) actually enter the market at $500, our estimate may prove to be conservative.”
I’m all for hyping the up the iPhone because of its awesome features (though not the fact that it doesn’t do 3G and maybe has battery life issues), but not because of small surveys.